## CTMixtures Status for Batch Equifinality-1

 Created: 16 Sep 2014 Modified: 23 Jul 2020 BibTeX Entry RIS Citation Print

### First Batch: Equifinality-1

I am starting the first batch of 40,000 simulation runs today, labeled equifinality-1. The configuration files and job scripts are located in the simulations/equifinality-1 directory of my experiment-ctmixtures GitHub repository. The gzipped tar archive ctmixtures-equifinality-1.tar.gz contains 400 job scripts, the simulation configuration files for each model, and a copy of the ctmixtures-2.3 software, and can be used to replicate this experiment either with or without StarCluster, on a local computer or other cloud computing service.

#### Models and Priors

All simulations are performed for 1MM steps in a Moran population dynamic with 100 individuals, so 10K generations.

• Equal proportions of anti- and conformist transmission
• 70% conformism, 30% anticonformism
• 30% conformism, 70% anticonformism
• 100% purely neutral copying

All models share a uniform prior distribution on innovation in the range $$[0.1, 5.0]$$, in scaled units. Conformist mixtures all share uniform prior distributions on the strength of the bias from the range $$[0.05, 0.25]$$.

All models allow the population to reach quasi-stationary equilibrium, and take a synchronic snapshot sample of the population of two sizes: 10 and 20 individuals from the total of 100. That synchronic snapshot occurs in time step 1MM, at the conclusion of the simulation run.

All models also perform time-averaged observations over a set of durations $$[10,25,50,100]$$ generations long (nb. 1 generation = 100 time steps in this model given the conversion between WF and Moran dynamics).

All models also calculate the Kandler-Shennan trait survival over a duration of 50 generations, both with synchronic point observations at the beginning and end of the 50 generation block, and with observations on each end which are time averaged for $$[10,25,50,100]$$ generations. This will allow analysis of the effect of time averaged observations on Kandler and Shennan’s non-equilibrium survival method.

Each simulation run is given a random seed, which is saved with the simulation results, and a label indicating which model was used, which is also saved with the simulation results. The latter will form the basis for training a classification model (SVM and random forest), and evaluating out-of-sample performance on a test data set.

#### Timing

Started the 400 jobs around 9:50am on 9/16. Projecting a completion sometime on Saturday, but some of the conformist models are taking about 3 minutes, not 4.3, so the batch could be done sooner, will keep an eye on it to minimize cost.

#### Completion

The runs consistently took a shorter time than my initial tests on an EC2 instance suggested, and close to the time on my laptop, so the total wall-clock time for the 40,000 runs was around 54.5 hours. Execution costs were \$120.00 almost exactly.