CTMixtures Status for Batch Equifinality-1

Created: 16 Sep 2014

Modified: 23 Jul 2020

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First Batch: Equifinality-1

I am starting the first batch of 40,000 simulation runs today, labeled equifinality-1. The configuration files and job scripts are located in the simulations/equifinality-1 directory of my experiment-ctmixtures GitHub repository. The gzipped tar archive ctmixtures-equifinality-1.tar.gz contains 400 job scripts, the simulation configuration files for each model, and a copy of the ctmixtures-2.3 software, and can be used to replicate this experiment either with or without StarCluster, on a local computer or other cloud computing service.

Models and Priors

All simulations are performed for 1MM steps in a Moran population dynamic with 100 individuals, so 10K generations.

• Equal proportions of anti- and conformist transmission
• 70% conformism, 30% anticonformism
• 30% conformism, 70% anticonformism
• 100% purely neutral copying

All models share a uniform prior distribution on innovation in the range \([0.1, 5.0]\), in scaled units. Conformist mixtures all share uniform prior distributions on the strength of the bias from the range \([0.05, 0.25]\).

All models allow the population to reach quasi-stationary equilibrium, and take a synchronic snapshot sample of the population of two sizes: 10 and 20 individuals from the total of 100. That synchronic snapshot occurs in time step 1MM, at the conclusion of the simulation run.

All models also perform time-averaged observations over a set of durations \([10,25,50,100]\) generations long (nb. 1 generation = 100 time steps in this model given the conversion between WF and Moran dynamics).

All models also calculate the Kandler-Shennan trait survival over a duration of 50 generations, both with synchronic point observations at the beginning and end of the 50 generation block, and with observations on each end which are time averaged for \([10,25,50,100]\) generations. This will allow analysis of the effect of time averaged observations on Kandler and Shennan’s non-equilibrium survival method.

Each simulation run is given a random seed, which is saved with the simulation results, and a label indicating which model was used, which is also saved with the simulation results. The latter will form the basis for training a classification model (SVM and random forest), and evaluating out-of-sample performance on a test data set.

Timing

Started the 400 jobs around 9:50am on 9/16. Projecting a completion sometime on Saturday, but some of the conformist models are taking about 3 minutes, not 4.3, so the batch could be done sooner, will keep an eye on it to minimize cost.

Completion

The runs consistently took a shorter time than my initial tests on an EC2 instance suggested, and close to the time on my laptop, so the total wall-clock time for the 40,000 runs was around 54.5 hours. Execution costs were $120.00 almost exactly.